Black Swan

What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human […]

Winter’s Icy Grip

Last year we basically had no winter.  There was no snow or ice and the weather stayed very mild until running into a record warm March.  This year’s version has been more typical of what you would expect for this part of Missouri.  We’ve had a couple of snows, the first arriving on Christmas night, totaling […]

Make thee an ark

When I started working on this post, I almost didn’t use the ark quote as a title because it seemed like way too much exaggeration.  Now, three days and 9 inches of rain later, I’m beginning to re-evaluate that feeling.  Since last Tuesday, we’ve had, according to my mother’s rain gauge, 14 inches of rain, with […]